it's "way too early" for this. good morning. welcome inside jerry's famous deli. we're live on collins avenue, miami beach, florida. just a day away from the florida prima primary. my how things have changed in the nine days since newt gingrich's overwhelming victory in south carolina. mitt romney's money and organization combined with a strong debate performance last week put him in the driver's seat. new polls show romney pulling away from speaker gingrich and the rest of the field. according to an nbc/maris poll released yesterday, romney leads newt by 15 points in miami, florida. romney's lead is deep and wide,

a breakdown shows romney cleaning up in just about every subgroup of voters. he beat speaker gingrich by 21 points among women, 9 points among men, 6 points among christians and he's within the margin of error also among tea partiers. romney holds a commanding lead among hispanics, a large florida voting bloc. 72% of registered republicans in miami-dade county are hispanic. romney leads gingrich by 24 points vong those voters. between campaign spending and superpac, romney is outspending gingrich by a ratio of four to one. romney spent $15.7 million overall. rick santorum's daubl was hospitalized with pneumonia. his 3-year-old, bella who suffers from a rage genetic

disorder is recovering and could be released from the philadelphia hospital soon. he planned to head to colorado and nevada for events tomorrow. he's putting all that on hold. we certainly wish bella a speedy recovery. despite all those numbers we showed you here in the state of florida, newt gingrich says the republican presidential race is far from over. he insists the conservative base is looking for the right candidate and he'll stay in for as long as it takes to prove he's the man for that job. >> this race is going to good on. the conservatives clearly are rejecting romney. he's nowhere near getting a majority. the fact is once you get beyond florida these are all proportional representation states and he's not going to be anywhere near a majority by april. and so this is going to go on all the way to the convention. i think clearly the conservatives and the grass roots are increasingly angry about the way in which the washington establishment has rallied in many ways with complete dishonesty. as that deepens, the conservatives will come together and decide they do not want a

massachusetts liberal to be the republican nominee. >> romney meanwhile is hoping a big win in florida will push his competitors further to the sidelines. speaking to a crowd of thousands in naples, romney was increasingly aggressive in his attacks against gingrich. focusing on last week's debates, romney slammed gingrich for making excuses for his performance. >> i felt energy just up there on the stage. it could not have been better. the first debate, of course, the audience was quiet and speaker gingrich said that threw him off. he can't debate before a quiet audience. then the next audience was very loud, very loud. he said that threw him off. he can't debate before a real loud audience. it's like goldilocks. can't have it this way, has to be just so. he's now finding excuses everywhere he can. he's on tv going from station to station, complaining about what he thinks are the reasons he's had difficulty here in florida. but you know, we have a president who has a lot of excuses and the excuses are over. it's time to produce. >> romney under looked at the

housing crisis which is a huge element here, hammering gingrich for his work with mortgage lender freddie mac. >> at the time some people were standing up saying we need to reform the system. speaker gingrich was being paid $1.6 million to stand up and do what he did, which is to say these programs should continue the way they are, these institutions are fine. look, the people of florida have had enough of freddie mac and fannie mae and government interference and it's time to get back to free market principles. so mr. speaker, your trouble in florida is not because the audience is too quiet or too loud. or because you have opponents that are tough. your problem in florida is that you worked for freddie mac at a time freddie mac was not doing the right thing for the american people and selling influence in washington at a time we needed people to stand up for the truth in washington. >> romney's leaning on big name supporters, not just here in florida but nationally to help with his attacks. the 1996 republican presidential

nominee bob dole, you remember last week, after gingrich saying his former congressional colleague is not suited to be president and that his candidacy actually could hurt the party in state and local races. the 2008 republican presidential nominee, john mccain offered his own criticism to the former speaker. yesterday on "meet the press." >> we had some rather unpleasant experiences with newt gingrich. one of them was the government shutdown in 1995. and bob dole is the one that finally called a halt to it because it was killing us. i mean, the american people rejected the idea of us shutting down the government. my problems with newt have been over earmark spending, billions and billions and billions. when newt gingrich became speaker, they turned earmarks into an art form. >> gingrich is fighting back, though, against what he calls the washington establishment. defending his candidacy and noting helpfully those two romney supporters didn't actually do so well in presidential races. >> i think the republican

establishment believes it's okay to say and do virtually anything to stop a genuine insurgency from winning because they are very afraid of losing control of the old order. we tried a moderate in 1996 for president. he lost. we tried a moderate in 2008 for president. he lost. it's very hard to take romney care and obama care and have a debate and have the republican win that debate. you need to have a conservative who's a big distance away from obama because you've got to have the space so that in fact you can communicate with the american people. >> injoing us now to help make sense, the chief white house kpon for politico, mike gallen and john heilemann, co-author of "game change." the dresses they were wearing before they changed into their tv clothes, inappropriate is

probably the most polite thing to say. >> shocking. >> nine days ago, on a sunday morning, eight days ago we woke up, newt gingrich had won a huge victory in south carolina. we said all momentum is going his way. what's happened between now and then as we look at the polls? >> a couple things. one, you talked about the imbalance of money. there's no doubt that romney, the barrage of television advertising, he's outspent gingrich 4-1. in a state like florida, where it's such a big state and media markets, that matters a huge amount. the second thing that's true, newt gingrich got here, he seems to when his back is to the wall, he campaigns with veracity and passion and focus. and when he's riding high, he drifts. and he came down here in a -- most notably in the two debates, throughout the entire week, he's been a man without a message. he's gotten distracted. he's gone off the rails and not driven home a consistent contrast with mitt romney the way he did in south carolina. the whole message of clear

choice, massachusetts moderate versus reagan conservative has been lost for course of the week. as i say on the debate stage that really hurt him. i think it's hurt him throughout the state. people don't no he what newt gingrich is about, apart from him being defensive and trying to relitigate issues about his past. the romney team has gotten under his skin and it's hurt him. >> john just touched on it but you at politico had a great piece up yesterday, it's still up today. the five states of florida, emphasizing how much different this place is than winning in south carolina. than winning in new hampshire, than winning in iowa, ten media markets. >> right. >> you've got to have money and organization to do well here. >> that's right. this is more of a country than a state. it's the fourth biggest state but you have a bunch of states within it. it's the biggest microcosm of the country aside from ohio. on the gulf side you have michigan, the retirees from the midwest. then up in the north part of the state you have georgia.

in middle of the state the big swing area running from tampa to orlando. where the candidates have been spending most of their time. >> scarborough country is different than where we're sitting right here. >> the further north you go, the more south you get. >> lower alabama as they cal the panhandle can you see a scenario, given the polls, the way he's doing it, inning essentially every category according to nbc polling. can gingrich turn the tide or should we expect a big win by romney here? >> there's nothing in the polling that suggests there's any reason it should turn around. i said to mike last night, if somehow we end up like a small single digit victory for romney will be given the way the media plays these things will be a defeat. >> it's you, come on! >> i recognize that. i do think it matters to gingrich's psychology. the truth is, he is angry.

you know, he is -- i think when he says he wants to fight to tampa, a lot of candidates say things looic that. gingrich is angry enough and crazy enough to want to do that. if he feels emboldened by suddenly a last-minute surge that gets him close, it will only make him more likely to be a thorn in romney's side for much longer. this is a huge, decisive win will put a den the in gingrich psychologically. that may take some of the wind out of his sails for fighting this fight for much longer than romney would like to fight it? >> also, why not. this is his last chance. his folks are sketching out for us the states they can do well and the way the delegates -- after florida, 5% of the delegates will ab warded. there's plenty of chance for him to keep torturing mitt romney. the republicans are telling us they see a situation like 1992. pat buchanan was long ago after the radar screen but was a huge presence at the convention in

houston. >> let's look at the road for it. gingrich says he'll take this fight to the convention. mike, you just touched on that. next weekend, the nevada primary, the following tuesday, colorado, minnesota, missouri. gingrich leads romney by nine points. the numbers suggest romney's climbing, newt falling. that road ahead as you look at it, even if gingrich does poorly here, can he keep going? >> the thing about gingrich is, he, unlike every other candidate in the republican field except for mitt romney, he has 100% name i.d. and he's a media magnet for free media. he has an ability to go on in a way like rick santorum doesn't. most of the country doesn't know who rick santorum is. without money to advertise, rick santorum is doomed. romney will do well in nevada and michigan and other places like that. if he can get to super tuesday,

the southern states start coming up in the month of march. if gingrich can get there where he'll have a better national twin thecy and regional appeal, he'll continue to torture romney. he has to get through february without completely fading into obscurity. whichen is likely for gingrich. >> that's why you see romney keeping boot on the throat. the rest of it was hammering gingrich last night. that's what all the ads have been, both the campaign and superpac, 50 million to 13 million going after gingrich. >> thanks for stumbling in from the clubs. we appreciate you. we'll let you come down from whatever you're on. mike allen, john heilemann, see you on "morning joe." we all know lebron james is the real star. in south beach yesterday he did it again, just up the road from here. highlights of the heat and bulls, perhaps the two best teams in the nba, ahead in

sports. romney shows off his skills with the cuban-american community. a candidate, a pig and a knife. that story to check on weather when "way too early" comes right back. it all amounts to the most ambitious series of communist attacks yet mounted, spreading violence into at least ten provincial capitals, plus american air bases and civilian installations, stretching the length of the country. ♪ round, round, get around, i get around ♪

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like a ramen noodle- every-night budget. she thought allstate car insurance was out of her reach. until she heard about the value plan. dollar for dollar, nobody protects you like allstate. welcome back to jerry's famous deli on collins avenue here in south beach.

we have people up early and people up late. it's a great mix in here. come by and see us. right now we want to head up to new york city for a check on the weather from bill karins. it's beautiful down here. >> we know what it's like down there, willie. >> i would never rub it in. >> one of these times i won't grab the short straw. somehow or another you guys keep giving it to me. we look at the primary tomorrow, we're looking beautiful. it's florida. this time of year, it's beautiful to be down there. no rain, temperatures mild. as far as the rest of the country goes, we can't explain either. it's mild around a lot of the country. it's not like people have had to retreat from the brutal winter we've had because we haven't had one. there's activity in wisconsin and northern portions of new england. these temperatures are in the 60s from denver to kansas city. chicago near 50 today. it's cooler in new england but we're still warm for this time of year. the weather pattern is set up for this week. the end of january will be like

the rest of the month. the cold air is up into canada. mild air covers all of the lower 48. the purple shows the really cold stuff in canada. over the next seven days it doesn't come our way at all. we'll stay mild, 60s in washington, d.c. tuesday and wednesday. don't feel too bad for us up here. >> that will help us phase back in as we leave miami. keep it warm for wednesday and thursday. >> we will. >> bill, thanks so much. we'll talk to you later on "morning joe." the heat hosted the chicago bulls in a great game not far from where we're sitting right here. d-wade dishes it to lebron for a two-handed dunk. later wade to james again. this time serving up a monster one-hander. oh, my goodness. just rising above mr. lucas. look where his head is. what? third quarter, derrick rose, crossover, all the way to the rim. bulls down one in the fourth. another beautiful play by derrick rose. he was terrific. banks it in, ties the game at

84. he had 34 points. five seconds left in the game. bulls down two. rose took the final shot but it coulds up short. he brought them back but they couldn't finish. the heat win. miami has won four games in a row. lebron is playing great. the 2012 pro bowl took place in hawaii last night. the star of the show, the dolphins own brandon marshall set a pro bowl record with four touchdown catches, including this ridiculous catch. wow! the nfc defender batted around, marshall kicks it off his foot, catches did for the touchdown. andy dalton, the rookie quarterback threw that pass. marshall's 176 yards and 4 touchdowns powered the afc to a 59-41 win. it was an epic end to the australian open. early yesterday as the top two players battled in the longest grand slam singles final in the history of professional tennis. instant classic here.

novak djokovic outlasted rafael nadal in 5 hours, 53 minutes. ripped off his shirt and screamed after crushing a forehand winner. djokovic who took over the top ranking last year has now won the past three grand slam tournament titles, nearly six hours of tennis played in australia yesterday. coming up at the top of the hour on "morning joe" live here in south beach, new polls over the weekend show mitt romney with a double digit lead in florida. how did romney do it? and how can newt change the math by tomorrow? we'll knock that around with our "morning joe" crew. and when we come back here, we'll huddle around the water cooler where the ladies from the movie "brides maids" play a good old-fashioned drinking game. the only catch, they played it while on stage presenting awards. "way too early" is coming

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welcome back to jerry's famous deli in south beach. our special coverage ahead of tomorrow's florida primary. this isn't just of course about the primary, it's about the larger general election.

there is added clout here in the presidential race. if you want to sound smart, tell your friends florida gets two more electoral votes than the in 2008 election. it used to be 27. the state now has 29 electoral votes. the same number as new york. only california and texas have more electoral votes. now you know. enough of the real news, let's huddle up around the water cooler to watch mitt romney getting it done yesterday down here. republican presidential candidate slicing into the slow-roasted pig during a campaign spot at casa myan restaurant. 72% of registered republicans in miami-dade are hispanic voters. and he's doing a pretty damn good job. slicing off the meat to the

voters and even took a bite for himself. here's a look at romney digging in. next to him, republican of florida, chairman of the house foreign affairs committee. she will join us later on "morning joe." on to something other than politics for a moment. last night's screen actor's guild awards featured the ladies of "bridesmaids." they took to the stage to present the best film ensemble nominees. and they whipped out a little drinking game. >> all this, all this food. >> it's free. it's free. >> all this is free tonight. >> it's free. also we have these because we made up a drinking game when we were shooting "bridesmaids." >> yep. >> played it all the time. bewanted to share it with you. people at home you can play along. >> it's fun, simple. here's what you do. i don't you have to take a drink every time -- and i mean every time, you hear the word

scorsese. that a girl. >> you'd be surprised how much that comes up in just casual conversation, because people like to throw that thing around. >> do you think scorsese saw our movie? >> thank you. >> is it scorsese or scorsese? >> scorsese. >> that's what it is. >> have you dean "the departed"? >> martin scorsese. >> oh, scorsese. >> scorsese. >> drunk on stage at the s.a.g. awards. those ladies are funny. while you're awake, your e-mail and texts are next. "morning joe" is next.

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wehtoss programs can beous. kellogg's crunchy nut. expensive. so to save some money, i just got the popular girls from the local middle school to follow me around. ew. seriously? so gross. ew. seriously? that is so gross. ew. seriously? dude that is so totally gross. so gross...i know. there's an easier way to save. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. welcome back to jerry's famous deli here in